Historical trends and forecast of health indicators of a child under 5 years
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52692/1857-0011.2024.2-79.26Keywords:
hild, under - five mortality, forecastingAbstract
Under-5 mortality (U5M) is the most sensitive indicator for the evaluation of the access to quality healthcare. A retrospective longitudinal study of the U5M trend was carried out by analyzing the indicators from 1990-2020. We forecast the evolution of the U5M by 2030 based on historical time series, applying the ARIMA (0,1,0) model. A total decline in U5M of 58.33% was found, with an annual reduction rate of 2.29%, especially due to post - neonatal mortality (1-59 months) until the year 2000. Forecast of mortality of children aged 0-5 years established a forward - looking prediction of decline.
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